Announcements of futuristic looking electric vehicles (EVs) made the main headlines at the 2009 Frankfurt Motor Show, but it is hybrid vehicle production which is forecast to be the main driver in the automotive sector for the next ten years.
 
Continuing with the theme of environmental issues from 2007, in 2009 Frankfurt once again saw emissions and fuel economy at the top of the agenda. 2009 is also the first time that electric vehicles have held such a prominent position in new vehicle announcements, with vehicle makers such as Ford, Hyundai, Mercedes, Peugeot, Renault, Toyota and VW all showcasing their vision for the future of electric motoring.
 
While EVs are making many of the news headlines, analysis from the latest report on the market for under-the-hood automotive electronic systems suggests that electric vehicles will have relatively little impact on light vehicle production until 2020, with global EV production forecast not to reach one million units until around 2017. Colin Barnden, Principal Analyst and study author, commented "While the future of electric vehicles is debated, the technology refined and plans for the necessary network of recharging stations put in place, it is hybrid vehicle production which is forecast to be the key trend driving reduced vehicle emissions over the next decade".
 
Hybrid vehicles includes start-stop hybrids, full hybrids and plug-in hybrids. Full hybrid/plug-in hybrid vehicles incorporate a motor/generator to provide additional propulsion when the engine is under heavy load, and capture and store electrical energy when the vehicle is slowing down and the Toyota Prius is perhaps the best known example. In comparison, start-stop hybrids provide intelligent stop-go function, to shut down the engine when the vehicle has been halted for a preset time and restart automatically when the accelerator is pressed. Semicast forecasts production of hybrid light vehicles to increase from two million in 2009 to forty million in 2017. Worldwide production of hybrid vehicles is forecast to increase significantly from 2012, reflecting the timetable for the introduction of more stringent emissions regulations in 2013. Europe is forecast to be the key production region for start-stop hybrids, with Europe, North America and Japan the leaders for full hybrids/plug-in hybrids.
 
In comparison, light vehicle production featuring only a conventional gasoline or diesel combustion engine and without a hybrid or electric powertrain is forecast to peak in 2012, at around 65 million, and then to steadily decline in the long term as production of hybrid and electric vehicles rises. However the death of the combustion engine is not forecast anytime soon, with continued demand in hybrid vehicles, and also many electric vehicles certain to enter production featuring a small combustion engine as a "range extender", in effect a generator to provide electrical power to the motors once the battery charge has been exhausted.
 
While Frankfurt 2009 made the vision for electric motoring clearer, much of what was announced will not become an everyday reality until 2020 and it is Semicast's view that hybrid vehicle production will be the main driver for the industry over the next ten years.

Details of the new report, table of contents and ordering information can be found on Electronics.ca Publications' web site. View the report: Under-the-hood Automotive Electronic Systems.